Capital Market Review

Monthly Commentary:

Market passed the first month of 2018 lingering the correction phase that started in December of 2017. Out of a total of 23 sessions in January, broad index DSEX lost 186.7 points during first 11 sessions. However, market rebounded after that recovering 118.6 points during next 10 sessions. However, by the end of January, DSEX lost a total of 204.7 (-3.3%) points and settled at 6,039.8 points, with 136.7 points loss during last two sessions. During the month, Bangladesh Bank published Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) Jan-Jun 2018.

During January, market participation remained slow with an average turnover of BDT 4.3 bn (USD 52.8 mn), a 10.0% decrease from that of the previous month. Bank remained the turnover leader with 18.9% contribution to the month’s average turnover. Engineering followed next contributing 15.8%. Among the major sectors, Food & Allied (+8.4%) yielded the highest return, with sector large cap BATBC appreciating by 11.1%. Telecommunication (+6.5%) posted the second highest return, riding on GP (+6.4%). Pharmaceuticals & Chemicals (+5.2%) followed next on top gainers’ list, with the sector large cap SQURPHARMA appreciating by 8.0%. On the contrary, Bank (-9.5%) faced the highest erosion in January, with all the banks closing in negative. Within the sector, CITYBANK (-18.7%), UTTARABANK (-14.8%) and EBL (-14.3%) faced the highest correction. Cement sector was down by 9.1%, with the large cap LAFSURCEML losing 13.22%.

Meanwhile, MSCI Frontier Markets Index increased by 5.7% this month. Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Vietnam, all the three regional peers outperformed Bangladesh during December.

 

Table: Index Movement

Indices

Index Point, Jan 2018

1M Return

3M Return

YTD Return

3Y Return

Bangladesh

 

 

 

 

 

DSEX

                           6,039.8

-3.3%

0.3%

10.5%

27.9%

DS30

                           2,239.0

-1.9%

3.3%

12.3%

28.1%

DSES

                           1,398.5

0.6%

6.2%

10.3%

25.3%

Peer Countries

 

 

 

 

 

Pakistan (KSE 100)

                       44,049.1

8.8%

11.2%

-9.7%

27.9%

Sri Lanka (CSE - All Share)

                           6,476.4

1.7%

-2.1%

5.6%

-9.8%

Vietnam (VNI)

                           1,110.4

12.8%

32.6%

59.2%

92.7%

MSCI Frontier Markets Index

                             674.1

5.7%

10.1%

26.6%

14.9%

All returns are Holding Period Return

       

 

Table: Market Statistics (January, 2017)

Market Statistics

31-Jan-18

28-Dec-17

% change

Mcap All (USD mn)

                         50,484.1

                     51,012.6

-1.0%

Mcap Equity (USD mn)

                         43,321.3

                     43,805.0

-1.1%

Daily Avg. Turnover (USD mn)

                                 52.8

 

58.7

-9.9%

 

Graph: DSE Turnover and DSEX

 

Graph: Sector Return (January, 2018)

Table: Top Twenty Market Cap (January, 2018)

DSE Code

Sector

Mcap1 (USD Mn)

Daily Avg. Turnover (USD Mn)

1M Return

3M Return

YTD Return

3Y Return

GP

Telecommunication

8,183.2

2.4

6.7%

14.6%

71.3%

72.9%

SQURPHARMA

Pharmaceuticals & Chemicals

2,899.8

3.1

8.0%

19.2%

36.4%

77.0%

BATBC

Food & Allied

2,734.2

0.2

11.1%

21.8%

55.2%

35.8%

ICB

NBFI

1,215.9

0.2

-5.2%

-12.8%

-1.3%

27.7%

RENATA

Pharmaceuticals & chemicals

1,039.2

0.3

9.4%

18.9%

29.9%

100.5%

BRACBANK

Bank

997.0

1.2

-10.7%

-3.8%

73.5%

231.8%

LAFSURCEML

Cement

846.2

0.9

-13.6%

2.0%

-26.7%

-49.8%

UPGDCL

Fuel & Power

750.8

1.4

-13.9%

-9.5%

5.8%

N/A

OLYMPIC

Food & Allied

686.6

0.4

-1.2%

14.9%

-4.7%

62.1%

ISLAMIBANK

Bank

662.3

0.7

-6.8%

3.3%

-22.1%

61.1%

BERGERPBL

Miscellaneous

595.7

0.0

3.2%

2.0%

-5.3%

58.7%

BXPHARMA

Pharmaceuticals & chemicals

520.5

0.7

2.5%

11.8%

24.9%

121.2%

TITASGAS

Fuel & Power

513.1

0.1

-2.7%

-3.4%

-11.5%

-35.4%

SUMITPOWER

Fuel & Power

468.9

0.2

1.4%

-2.7%

-7.0%

28.7%

MARICO

Pharmaceuticals & chemicals

455.9

0.1

8.5%

8.0%

18.4%

17.3%

CITYBANK

Bank

449.0

1.1

-20.1%

-11.6%

36.1%

172.5%

MJLBD

Fuel & Power

395.9

0.2

-0.3%

-2.5%

-7.6%

34.7%

EBL

Bank

389.9

0.2

-14.3%

-7.4%

47.2%

125.1%

NBL

Bank

371.7

0.8

0.0%

0.8%

6.1%

65.8%

IFADAUTOS

Engineering

347.8

1.8

1.5%

1.0%

50.8%

N/A

All returns are holding period return

1Mcap as on last trading session of the month

23Y return of UPGDCL and IFADAUTOS are unavailable as these were listed in 2015

 

Table: Top Ten Gainers’ List (January, 2018)

DSE Code

31-Jan-18

28-Dec-17

% Change

JUTESPINN

158.0

103.3

53.0%

MEGCONMILK

28.9

20.2

43.1%

MEGHNAPET

25.6

18.2

40.7%

SONARGAON

20.0

14.9

34.2%

MONNOCERA

114.6

89.7

27.8%

BXSYNTH

10.8

8.9

21.3%

DULAMIACOT

30.7

26.5

15.8%

IMAMBUTTON

40.9

35.6

14.9%

BANGAS

199.8

175.5

13.8%

MONNOSTAF

750.3

660.3

13.6%

 

Table: Top Ten Losers’ List (January, 2018)

DSE Code

31-Jan-18

28-Dec-17

% Change

ALIF

                               14.7

                           25.1

-41.4%

OIMEX

                               49.5

                           65.2

-24.1%

AIL

                             111.7

                         143.0

-21.9%

CITYBANK

                               42.5

                           53.2

-20.1%

NAHEEACP

                               59.6

                           73.4

-18.8%

NORTHERN

                             454.5

                         553.6

-17.9%

GEMINISEA

                             388.3

                         454.7

-14.6%

PRIMEBANK

                               23.4

                           27.4

-14.6%

EBL

                               43.8

                           51.1

-14.3%

DSHGARME

                             205.4

                         238.9

-14.0%

 

Table: Top Ten Closed End Funds based on 5 years’ (CAGR) performance:

DSE Code

Fund

Manager

Price1
(BDT)

NAV1
(BDT)

Price/
NAV

Dividend
Yield2 (%)

NAV Return3

   

2018 YTD

2017

2015

-17

2013

-17

Redemption
Year

NLI1STMF

VIPB

15.96

17.58

90.8%

9.4%

1.7%

31.8%

21.9%

19.3%

2023

SEBL1STMF

VIPB

14.2

16.45

86.3%

9.4%

1.7%

31.1%

20.2%

18.5%

2021

GRAMEENS2

AIMS

15.6

20.48

76.2%

7.1%

1.8%

24.7%

13.6%

17.2%

2021

RELIANCE1

AIMS

10.7

14.39

74.4%

9.3%

0.1%

21.2%

13.5%

16.3%

2027

IFILISLMF1

ICB AMCL

7.7

9.97

77.2%

12.2%

1.4%

11.8%

10.3%

15.4%

2027

PRIME1ICBA

ICBAMCL

7.3

9.61

76.0%

9.5%

0.9%

21.7%

12.5%

14.3%

2020

1JANATAMF

RACE

6.5

12.02

54.1%

3.1%

-0.7%

20.9%

13.0%

13.6%

2018

PHPMF1

RACE

6.4

12.08

53.0%

3.8%

0.1%

25.0%

13.8%

13.2%

2020

POPULAR1MF

RACE

6

12.04

49.8%

5.6%

-0.7%

22.7%

13.2%

12.9%

2019

PF1STMF

ICBAMCL

7.2

9.2

78.3%

6.9%

0.5%

16.7%

10.9%

12.8%

2020

1 Price and NAV published on January 28, 2018;

2 On latest cash dividend declared

3CAGR computed for respected periods, except for 2018, adjusted for dividend. YTD returns of funds debuting within the year represent return generated since debut, hence is not directly comparable with return of funds that operated throughout the year.

 

Table: Fund Managers Performance Summary

Fund Manager

AUM (BDT mn)

P/NAV

Dividend Yield (%)

NAV Return

Fund Managers'
Ranking by Return1

2018 YTD

2017

2015-17

2013-17

2017

2015-17

2013-17

RACE

33,139

51.9%

3.4%

-0.8%

21.8%

12.7%

11.7%

5

4

4

LR Global

11,188

69.3%

6.3%

1.5%

23.3%

12.5%

9.5%

4

5

5

ICB AMCL

8,160

79.6%

8.1%

0.9%

16.5%

10.6%

11.9%

7

6

3

AIMS

4,605

75.8%

7.4%

1.5%

24.0%

13.9%

16.6%

3

3

2

VAML

3,451

75.0%

3.0%

1.4%

18.6%

-

-

6

-

-

VIPB

2,526

87.9%

9.5%

1.7%

31.4%

20.8%

18.8%

1

1

1

SEML

1,584

66.9%

7.1%

1.1%

8.7%

-

-

9

-

-

ATCP AMCL

888

76.5%

14.1%

1.8%

26.1%

16.2%

-

2

2

-

CAPM

554

76.0%

-

1.2%

10.8%

-

-

8

-

-

                     

AMC Industry (Closed end)

66,095

63.4%

5.2%

0.3%

21.3%

12.6%

12.1%

-

-

-

1Position of the respective fund manager in the ranking of 6 managers by return in respective horizon